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Projected external situation

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The strategy for the development of PZU Group until the year 2020 was created with the assumptions concerning the internal and external factors, that may influence the Group's business plans.

The strategy for the development of PZU Group until the year 2020 was created with the following assumptions concerning the condition of the Polish economy and insurance sector:

  • moderate economic growth pace in Poland – According to PZU’s projections, the Polish economy will develop at the approximate annual pace of 3-4% in the near future. One of the main contributors of the growth of the Polish economy will still be inpidual consumption, which will grow at the annual pace of 2.6-3.3%;
     
  • low inflation – The year 2015 will record a 0.5% price growth. Then the inflation index will slowly accelerate and may reach the target assumed by the Monetary Policy Council by 2018 (i.e. 2.5% annually);
     
  • historically low interest rates – The projections for the first years of the strategy state that the interest rates will drop to unprecedented lows. In 2015, the average annual WIBOR6M may drop below 2.0% and should rise to approximately 3.5% within the strategy’s horizon;
     
  • aging of the society – The Polish population is projected to decline and the share of the elderly in the population structure is projected to increase;
     
  • introduction of regulative changes, including implementation of the following:It is forecasted that non-life insurance market will develop at the annual pace of 2.5% and Life insurance market with annual average of 1.3%. 
     
    • Solvency II – The Solvency II Directive will come into effect on 1st January of 2016 and some of its regulations on 1st April 2015. It will have impact on the capital requirements of insurance companies and introduce new risk management standards.
       
    • U Recommendation of the PFSA concerning good practices in scope of bancassurance. It is projected that it may temporarily slow down the development of the sales via bancassurance channel. 
       
  • growth of the claims ratio in non-life insurance in the long run;
     
  • moderate perspectives in scope of the development of the Polish insurance market:
     
    • non-life insurance market. It is projected to develop at the annual pace of 2.5%. Due to the low growth of vehicle numbers, the premiums for motor insurance will grow at a rather slow pace (annual average of approximately 2.3%). The price war on this market is projected to continue during the first years of the strategy (with maintenance of a low claims ratio). Projections state that the non-motor insurance market will grow at a somewhat faster pace (2.7% annually). This will result from the growth of corporate tangible assets, the growing wealth of inpidual clients, and the greater interest in additional insurances;
       
    • life insurance market. It will develop at a slower pace than the non-life insurance market with annual average of 1.3%. The 1.3% growth of regular insurance is assumed to cover a stable growth of group insurance (average annual pace of 2.7%). The arrangement of the single premium insurance market will result in the growth of their share unit-linked products at the expense of structured products and short-term endowments (polisolokaty);
       
  • dynamic development on the investment fund market – this market will benefit from the low interest rates and the rising wealth of the society. It is projected that the household assets invested in TFI will grow at the average annual pace of approximately 12,3%;
     
  • great potential of health insurance and prepaid health packages – due to the difficult access to the NFZ benefits, the private expenses for health insurance and prepaid health packages will grow at the average annual pace of 8.5%.
     

Non-life insurance market – gross written premium (PLN billion)*

 
 

Life insurance market – gross written premium (PLN billion)*

 
 

Household savings invested on TFI market (PLN billion)*

Private expenses on health insurance and prepaid health packages (billion PLN)*